The right places and the right time: mapping urgency and threat to guide GBF targets

Understanding and mapping urgency and threats is critical to inform decisions on meeting area-based targets under the Global Biodiversity Framework and ensure we’re achieving the intended outcomes and impact. This event will showcase an innovative suite of forward-looking science tools developed by The Nature Conservancy to support strategic conservation planning in a rapidly changing world. The session will highlight two integrated products—Human Modification (HM) Forecasts and the Estimated Time to Act (ETA)—which use AI, spatial modeling, and scenario analysis to identify where and when conservation action is most urgently needed. Together, these tools provide a globally consistent, spatially explicit framework to anticipate biodiversity loss over time, prioritize investments, and guide decision-making at global, national, and regional scales.